*This article came from the Financial Post and is reprinted only for criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. We believe that this item may be very useful for research if Trump is elected again or not! He has surprised the media pundits and his opponents in the last election and could very well surprise them again. Something historical could happen again. Let's wait and see!
Think Trump’s about to be stopped? Prepare to be surprised. Again
March 2, 2018
“Democrats are on a roll in the run-up to
the midterms,” announced a Washington Post headline, Wednesday.
“Democrats keep winning special elections. A ‘Blue Wave’ may be coming
this fall,” agreed The Boston Globe. “Dems surge in generic ballot as
economy fades from spotlight,” echoed The Hill.
It looks bleak for President Donald Trump and
the Republican party, anti-Trump pundits enthuse. Once Democrats regain
control over the House of Representatives and maybe also the Senate,
Trump’s populist agenda can be fully blocked and impeachment proceedings
can begin.
The pundits should instead ponder a likelier
scenario: Republicans not only retaining both houses of Congress, but
increasing their lead, possibly by enough to give the Republicans total
control over Congress in November. And enough to give Trump an open
field to push through the most radical populist agenda in history.
For those who haven’t been paying attention,
Trump’s popularity has been climbing, especially among those who
especially count — voters. Last week, according to the Rasmussen poll of
likely voters — one of the few polling companies that recognized Trump
could win the 2016 presidency — Trump became popular with 50 per cent of
the electorate, higher than Barack Obama’s 45 per cent standing at the
same stage of his presidency.
Trump’s rising stock with the American public
should puzzle no one: he has delivered and Americans are feeling good
about themselves. The Conference Board puts consumer confidence at a
17-year high; the Labor Department puts unemployment at 17-year low. For
the first time in decades, median incomes of Americans are rising,
putting a spring in their step. “Americans’ optimism about finding a
quality job averaged 56 per cent in 2017, the highest annual average in
17 years of Gallup polling and a sharp increase from 42 per cent in
2016,” Gallup reports.
Trump... has miraculously made believers out of many of the diehard Never Trumpers
Trump’s base is especially optimistic: He has
proven wrong those who claimed manufacturing jobs are gone for good. The
Institute for Supply Management reports robust growth, explaining the
fastest return of manufacturing jobs in 13 years. Trump is likewise
delivering on his vow to reduce illegal immigration. Illegal border
crossings are at a 17-year low.
Trump’s stellar performance has not only
turned much of the general public’s opinion around, it has miraculously
made believers out of many of the diehard Never Trumpers, creating a
unified Republican party solidly behind the president. At last week’s
gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference, the largest
annual gathering of conservatives, Trump earned a 93-per-cent approval
rating — this from purists who before his election scoffed at claims
that he was a conservative.
The expectation that Republicans will lose the
House of Representatives is largely based on precedent. In almost 90
per cent of the midterms in modern U.S. history, the party that won the
presidency lost House seats. That norm, coupled with a highly motivated
anti-Trump movement, provides Democrats with an expectation of unusually
high turnouts at the voting booth. Democrats have every reason to be
hopeful.
But so do Republicans. Trump’s growing
popularity and his ability to rally his base blunt these Democratic
advantages. Independents are trending to Trump, particularly since
Democrats are leaderless and the rift between their moderate and
far-left factions prevent them from unifying on anything except hatred
of Trump. Even if Republicans do lose some seats in the House of
Representatives, they can afford to. The Republicans have a 45-seat
edge, letting them retain the House despite some Democratic gains.
Republicans have even more reasons to be
hopeful over the Senate. Of the 34 Senate seats being contested, only
eight are held by Republicans, seven of them in states Trump won. In
contrast, Democrats must defend 26 seats, 10 of them in states Trump
won, five by double digits. If Republicans take nine of those 10
Trump-state seats — an entirely plausible outcome — while retaining the
eight Republican incumbent seats, Republicans would have a
filibuster-proof Senate, enough to overcome any Democratic objections.
This week, Trump took the unusual step of
announcing his 2020 campaign manager, political newbie Brad Parscale,
whose first exposure to political campaigns came as a one-man shop
running Trump’s early digital operations, and who is widely credited
with rewriting the rules on how political campaigns will be fought. The
Trump announcement wasn’t made this early because Parscale (dubbed
Trump’s “secret weapon” by 60 Minutes) needs time to ramp up for 2020.
It was made now because Trump will deploy Pascale in the 2018 races to
capture the Congressional seats the president needs to secure a Congress
free of Democratic obstruction.
The Democrats now salivating at the prospect
of taking back Congress in November, and then ousting Trump, need to
take a deep breath. Their nightmare could be just beginning.
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
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