Jan 132016

Dr. Spencer is an internationally recognized climatologist who explains things like why we do not know whether man is causing any climate change or not.

Or, is the planet really warming all over?

Roy Spencer, PhD. Climate Change Research Scientist, Author, Former NASA Scientist

  • Fan Mail
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-18 at 12:59

    Once in a while I share “fan mail” I get in response to my blog, and I thought the following example was unusually interesting. I won’t bother to rebut the mix of misrepresentations, misinformation, etc. This is more for entertainment value. WARNING: The language in the following is, shall we say, colorful. Don’t read any […]

  • Oroville Dam: Crisis Eases, Emergency Spillway Repairs in Progress
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-15 at 14:58

    With the evacuation order lifted last evening, and ~185,000 residents returning to their homes in Oroville and surrounding communities, emergency repairs continue around the clock on the damaged emergency spillway at Oroville Dam. Yesterday morning (Feb. 14), a concrete pumper and boulders were being used to patch the main erosion features that developed when the […]

  • The Oroville Dam Crisis: What Happened, What’s Next?
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-14 at 14:39

    After watching the Oroville Dam crisis evolve over the last several days, and reading various experts’ opinions about what might be going on both with both the facility itself and behind the scenes decision-making, I thought it might be time to step back and discuss where we are at, and where we might be going. […]

  • Oroville Emergency Spillway: Does this Look Like Bedrock to You?
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-13 at 21:35

    I’ve had a little criticism here and on Facebook that I’m not a geologist, so I shouldn’t be second-guessing the Oroville Dam engineers. They called for evacuations last evening out of an abundance of caution. That the emergency spillway is no doubt built on bedrock, and so it is safe. Well, if it was only […]

  • Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway Repairs Starting
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-13 at 16:34

    With daylight and Oroville Lake water levels now 4 feet below the lip of the emergency spillway, we can see that the area of concern is a gouge which developed near the far end of the concrete weir, and was eroding uphill toward that structure; for scale, those yellow spots are people inspecting the gouge […]

  • Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway Expected to Fail within the Hour
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-13 at 01:12

    So, it turns out all of that bedrock that made the Oroville Dam design so fail-safe is not going to stand in the way of Mother Nature. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered, and the emergency spillway is expected to fail within the hour. Flash flood warnings have been issued. This will affect Oroville all the […]

  • Why the Oroville Dam Won’t Fail
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-12 at 15:48

    While it is said, “never say never”, after researching this issue I’m pretty convinced that it would be nearly impossible for the Oroville Dam to fail. Even though it is an earthfill embankment dam, which can be destroyed if the dam is topped, the following Metabunk graphic demonstrates why the Oroville design is virtually foolproof: […]

  • Is Failure of the Oroville Dam Possible?
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-11 at 18:15

    The last couple of days have not made me very confident in the predictions of engineers associated with the Oroville Dam. While I am a climate researcher, and not hydrologist, it took me less than an hour midday yesterday (see comments here) to estimate that the emergency spillway would be breached around 9 a.m. PST […]

  • Lake Oroville 100% Full; Emergency Spillway Use Hours Away?
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-11 at 13:00

    UPDATE: As of 9 a.m. PST, the water level has increased to 901.24 ft., and water is overflowing the 1,700 ft. long emergency spillway. For the first time in the 50 year history of Oroville Dam, Lake Oroville has exceeded its design limit as of 3 a.m. PST this morning, reaching 900.1 ft. elevation. The […]

  • Lake Oroville Near 100% Full, Emergency Overflow Imminent
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-02-10 at 14:56

    With a winter of phenomenal heavy rains and snow (over 400 inches so far at some Sierra Nevada locations), Lake Oroville 65 miles north of Sacramento is literally entering uncharted territory in its 50 year history. As the following chart shows, the reservoir is rapidly approaching its design capacity: While the reservoir has been nearly […]

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