Jan 212016
  • Four Fabrications About Firearms
    by justfacts on 2017-10-19 at 20:16

    By James D. Agresti October 19, 2017 According to two recent op-eds published by the New York Times: “more guns means more murder.” “more guns means less safety.” “a gun is 22 times more likely to be used in a … Continue reading &rarr […]

  • Ginsburg Sexism Charge Undercut By Scientific Poll
    by justfacts on 2017-09-28 at 18:06

    By James D. Agresti September 28, 2017 In a recent interview on CBS This Morning, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg spurred the audience to applause by saying she had “no doubt” that sexism played a role in Hillary Clinton’s … Continue reading &rarr […]

  • What the $20 Trillion National Debt Means to You
    by justfacts on 2017-09-14 at 18:07

    By James D. Agresti September 14, 2017 On September 8, 2017—the same day that Congress and President Trump passed a law suspending the federal debt limit until December—the official debt of the U.S. government surpassed the milestone of $20 trillion, … Continue reading &rarr […]

  • Hurricanes, Rainfall, and Climate Change
    by justfacts on 2017-09-12 at 15:49

    By James D. Agresti September 12, 2017 In the midst of a severe hurricane season and the destruction wrought by hurricanes Harvey and Irma, many people are claiming that man-made global warming has intensified rainfall and hurricanes. However, comprehensive facts … Continue reading &rarr […]

  • Media and Politicians Twist Trump’s Words About Charlottesville
    by justfacts on 2017-08-22 at 20:12

    By James D. Agresti August 22, 2017 In the wake of President Trump’s comments about the killing and mass violence in Charlottesville, media outlets and politicians have alleged that Trump said some of the white supremacists are “very fine people” … Continue reading &rarr […]

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Jan 132016

Dr. Spencer is an internationally recognized climatologist who explains things like why we do not know whether man is causing any climate change or not.

Or, is the planet really warming all over?

Roy Spencer, PhD. Climate Change Research Scientist, Author, Former NASA Scientist

  • UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2017: +0.54 deg. C
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-10-02 at 12:49

    The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2017 was +0.54 deg. C, up from the August, 2017 value of +0.41 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 21 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. […]

  • The Monty Hall Problem: There Is No Correct Answer
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-10-01 at 11:57

    A diversion from global warming topics. The simple little probability problem below has apparently been debated for many years. It came to prominence when Marilyn vos Savant answered a reader’s question about it. Her answer was believed to be wrong by some of the greatest statistical minds in the world, and eventually most of them […]

  • The 11-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-09-21 at 13:37

    Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall. But the statistics of rare events (like hurricanes) are not very well behaved. Let’s look at this new record, and compared it to […]

  • Cracks in the Empire’s Armor Appear
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-09-20 at 10:54

    Yesterday brought widespread news coverage of a new “study” published in Nature Geoscience which concludes that global warming has not been progressing as fast as expected, and that climate models might be a “little bit” wrong. (That the “little bit” is a factor of 2 or 3 is a fine point upon which we won’t […]

  • Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-09-18 at 22:45

    Partly in response to the crazy claims of the usual global warming experts (Stevie Wonder, Beyoncé, Jennifer Lawrence, Mark Ruffalo, Bill Nye the Science Guy, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Pope Francis), I decided to write another Kindle e-book. This one is entitled, Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming. In it I review […]

  • UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2017: +0.41 deg. C
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-09-05 at 12:58

    The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2017 was +0.41 deg. C, up somewhat from the July, 2017 value of +0.29 deg. C (click for full size version): The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 20 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. […]

  • Houston Area Flooding Seen from Space
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-08-31 at 18:38

    Today the skies cleared enough to see the huge amount of water flowing out of southeast Texas and Houston into the Gulf of Mexico. Here is a before-and-after animation which shows the change from July 28 versus today (August 31), taken from the MODIS imager on NASA’s Terra satellite. Click on the image to enlarge […]

  • Texas Major Hurricane Intensity Not Related to Gulf Water Temperatures
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-08-29 at 17:01

    As the Houston flood disaster is unfolding, there is considerable debate about whether Hurricane Harvey was influenced by “global warming”. While such an issue matters little to the people of Houston, it does matter for our future infrastructure planning and energy policy. Let’s review the two basic reasons why the Houston area is experiencing what […]

  • Why Houston Flooding Isn’t a Sign of Climate Change
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-08-28 at 11:52

    In the context of climate change, is what we are seeing in Houston a new level of disaster which is becoming more common? The flood disaster unfolding in Houston is certainly very unusual. But so are other natural weather disasters, which have always occurred and always will occur. (By the way, making naturally-occurring severe weather […]

  • Hurricane Harvey: 1 Million Hiroshima Bombs per Day
    by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. on 2017-08-25 at 18:01

    Mother Nature routinely deals with huge amounts of energy. In the case of hurricanes, some of the solar energy stored in the upper ocean is rapidly removed by strong winds in the form of evaporated water vapor, which then feeds the hurricane as the vapor condenses into rain and the “latent heat of condensation” is […]

 Posted by at 23:07
Jan 132016

“In the realm of ideas there has been no better publication in Australia over the last fifty years than Quadrant magazine.”
— Former Prime Minister John Howard

Quadrant Online » Opinion The leading general intellectual journal of ideas, literature, poetry and historical and political debate published in Australia.

  • Unplug the Privatised Power Market
    by Roger Franklin on 2017-10-20 at 03:36

    The wan initiatives Turnbull & Co attempted have painted as solutions to our domestic energy crisis are a chimera. Nor will any measures be effective until power producers and green-schemers are brought to heel, which neither of our chief political parties is ever likely to doThe post Unplug the Privatised Power Market appeared first on Quadrant Online. […]

  • The ‘Hybrid Vigour’ of True Diversity
    by Roger Franklin on 2017-10-19 at 23:29

    The urgers of Multiculti Inc promote a society of hermetic communities, each honouring its heritage while declining to share and adopt those of others. They could learn a thing or two from sheep breeders, who grasp that integrating lineages fosters strength and resilienceThe post The ‘Hybrid Vigour’ of True Diversity appeared first on Quadrant Online. […]

  • A Low-Wattage PM’s Useless ‘Guarantee’
    by Roger Franklin on 2017-10-19 at 01:09

    According to Malcolm Turnbull, his National Energy Guarantee 'will lower electricity prices, make the system more reliable, encourage the right investment and reduce emissions without subsidies, taxes or trading schemes.' Every word is a lieThe post A Low-Wattage PM’s Useless ‘Guarantee’ appeared first on Quadrant Online. […]

  • Dear Minister Frydenberg…
    by Roger Franklin on 2017-10-19 at 00:20

    This complex 'green energy' mess you refuse to correct is costing Australians a wholly unnecessary $30Bn to $50Bn a year.  Yes, you read that right: tens of billions of dollars squandered to pleasure rent-seekers and destroy thousands of jobs-- your political career among themThe post Dear Minister Frydenberg… appeared first on Quadrant Online. […]

  • The Energy Minister’s Slip Is Showing
    by Roger Franklin on 2017-10-18 at 06:35

    Having scoffed at power-market modelling, Josh Frydenberg drew comfort from 'expert'  projections he finds more useful in extolling the latest,  the very latest, clever scheme to keep the lights on, rent-seekers prosperous and electricity bills no higher than in 97% of the developed worldThe post The Energy Minister’s Slip Is Showing appeared first on Quadrant Online. […]

 Posted by at 06:56
Jan 052016

Independent Institute Articles Recent Articles and op-eds from the Independent Institute

 Posted by at 11:25
Jan 052016
 Posted by at 10:38
Jan 052016
  • CLOUD Experiment Reduces Climate Sensitivity to CO2

    The CLOUD experiments at the nuclear facility CERN showed that the ionization of the atmosphere by cosmic rays account for nearly one-third of all particles formed. The experiments also shows the aerosol particle formed from biogenic nucleation from naturally produce organic vapour “was the dominant source of particles in the pristine pre-industrial atmosphere”, and that the amount of aerosol was much higher than previously assumed. That means that pre-industrial atmosphere was cloudier than previously assumed, as the aerosols seed cloud formation, and that greenhouse gases caused a much smaller portion of the warming since pre-industrial times. The climate sensitivity in climate models must be reduced for them to match past aerosol amounts and the temperature record. […]

  • Empirically Constrained Climate Sensitivity and the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide

    The authors applied the 2015 Lewis and Curry equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) distribution to the widely-used DICE and FUND Integrated Assessment Models. Previously the developers of these models (and others) have relied on model-simulated distribution of ECS values. using the empirical ECS distribution, the estimated SCC drops substantially in both the DICE and FUND models, and in the latter there is a large probability it is no longer even positive. The FUND model calculates that emissions in 2010 using a 5% discount rate have a SCC of -$0.65/tCO2, that is, emissions are beneficial. The ECS used however, is too high because it fails to account for urban contamination of the surface temperature record nor natural long-term climate change. […]

  • Calculating the “Social Cost” of CO2 Emissions Using FUND

    The social cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (SCCO2) is defined as the social worldwide costs (net of benefits) of emitting one tonne of CO2 into the atmosphere. The estimated SCCO2 is used for doing cost-benefit calculations for proposed government regulations. Integrated assessment models are used to estimate the SCCO2 considering demographic and economic variables in addition to the physical climate system. The temperature responses in IAM approximately match complex climate models. One of the IAMs, FUND, is freely available. This article presents plots and tables that give some idea of what FUND does. Using a 3% discount rate FUND calculates net damages of US$30/tCO2 if the climate sensitivity is 3.5 °C, and US$16/tCO2 of net benefits if the climate sensitivity is 1.0 °C for emissions in 2010, in constant US$2016. […]

  • The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) are used to determine the social costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions for making climate policies. The most important parameter in determining the economic impact of climate change is the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions. The transient climate response to CO2 emissions at the time of a doubling of CO2 using an empirical energy balance method was estimated at 0.85 °C, using the newest aerosol estimates, and accounting for urban warming contamination of the surface temperature record and the natural warming from the Little Ice Age. The equilibrium climate sensitivity was estimated at 1.02 °C. Using the FUND integrated assessment model results, the mean estimate of the social cost of carbon on a global basis is determined to be -16.6 US$/tonne of CO2, and is extremely likely to be less than -4.3 US$/tonne of CO2. The calculations assume emissions in 2020, a 3% discount rate and constant US$2007. […]

  • The Cost-Benefit Question on City of Calgary Climate Change Plans

    The City of Calgary has been actively engaged in incorporating climate change planning into almost every level of municipal culture. But has anyone stopped to ask questions about the Cost-Benefit of some of these proposals and initiatives? Do citizens even know what some aspects of ‘going green’ will cost them? Is ‘climate change’ too often a diversion of funds and attention from more serious municipal needs like flood mitigation, infrastructure, or homelessness? Friends of Science Society has issued two reports responding to the City of Calgary’s Climate Change Plan. […]

 Posted by at 10:16