Jan 052016
 
  • Testing the Tropical 200-300 mbar Warming Rate in Climate Models

    The tropical warming rate in climate models in the 200-300 mbar (9 to 12 km altitude) is compared to weather balloon measurement at a fundamental test of the models. Dr. McKirtick and Dr. Christy show that the average trend of the measurements is only about half of the climate models. They report a discrepancy across all runs of all models, taking the form of a warming bias at a sufficiently strong rate as to reject the hypothesis that the models are realistic. This means that the water vapour feedback is too strong in the models, and that they overestimate the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. […]

  • Urban Heat Island Effect in China; Early and Current 20th Century

    This paper by Soon et al 2015 found that temperatures in rural China in the 1940s were higher than at the present. The mostly rural stations had the highest temperatures in the 1940s, and the most urbanized stations had the warmest recent period. The paper found that the homogenizing algorithms that are supposed to remove the UHI effect from the records actually blends the effect over all stations, which increases the temperatures of the least urban records. […]

  • The State of the World’s Beaches

    This paper examined the historical shoreline change trends using satellite images since 1984. The paper reports that 31% of the world’s ice-free shoreline are sandy or gavel. The study says that 24% of the world’s sandy and gravel beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28% are accreting more than 0.5 m/yr and 48% are stable. References to sandy beaches include gravel beaches. More sandy beaches are growing than are receding despite sea level rise. On a global scale, the world’s beaches have accreted on average 0.33 m/yr over the past three decades, i.e. a total gain of 3,663 km2. […]

  • Antarctic Specific Features of the Greenhouse Effect

    A research paper by the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany presents a radiative analysis of the greenhouse effect over central Antarctica using measurements and models to shows that the greenhouse effect of CO2 is around zero or even negative in central Antarctica. An increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space over central Antarctica, which cools the earth-atmosphere system. The most negative greenhouse effect occurs in autumn with its peak in March, which is also the season with the strongest surface cooling. […]

  • Changes in the Rate of Sea Level Rise; Gavin vs Eschenbach

    Gavin Schmidt says that sea level rise has accelerated since 1860, but Willis Eschenbach says "Yes, a quadratic provides a better fit than no acceleration, but NOT significantly better. Which means you can't claim acceleration. Eschenbach analyzed the statistical significance the the variance between the quadratic and linear fits of the Church and White 2011 data. Church and White are experts is creating reconstructions of global sea levels from tide gauges. Eschenbach shows that there were large changes in the 31-year trends over the 20th century, ranging from a low of 0.80 mm/y ending 1931 to a high of 2.10 mm/yr in 1961. He concludes "The 95% CI for each of the residuals encompasses the variance of the other residual … and this means that there is no statistical difference between the two. It may just be a random fluctuation, or it might be a real phenomenon. We cannot say at this point." […]

 Posted by at 10:16

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